precious metals returns during recessions
July 17, 2026I've spent twenty years calculating edge in environments where certainty doesn't exist. First at poker tables where they called me "The Poker Whisperer," then in sportsbooks balancing risk across thousands of events, and now constructing asset strategies for clients who can't afford to guess wrong. When recession fears start dominating the financial news cycle, the conversation inevitably turns to precious metals. Everyone wants to know if gold and silver will save their portfolio when everything else collapses. After watching markets through the 2008 crisis, the March 2020 COVID crash, and the volatility of 2022, I've learned that the relationship between recessions and precious metals returns is more nuanced than the gold bugs want you to believe.
What Actually Happens at the Margin Call
During the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008, I watched clients who had gone heavy into gold get a rude awakening. Yes, gold eventually